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The Philippine government sought to introduce a ban on nickel ore exports from 2030 to enhance domestic processing capabilities and advance up the value chain. This decision was rescinded in mid-June, and this insight will look into the effects this will have on freight in the region.
Why did the Philippines propose a nickel ore export ban?
Despite ranking 6th by size of nickel reserves, the Philippines has been the largest exporter of nickel ore since 2015, a year after Indonesia, home to the world's largest nickel reserves, introduced a ban on unprocessed nickel ore exports. Since then, the regulations surrounding what nickel can and cannot be exported from Indonesia have fluctuated, but in 2020, they were fully reinstated, meaning that no unprocessed nickel ore can be exported.
Indonesia banned ore exports to encourage investment and development of processing infrastructure in the country, creating higher-value exports. This aim appears to have been met, with reports of Indonesian nickel-related export values surging from $1.4 billion in 2014 to $22 billion in 2024, and a steady stream of foreign and domestic investment into the country’s processing industry. Indonesia is now the leading refined nickel producer.
The Philippines saw banning nickel ore exports as a way for the country to develop similarly, and the Senate passed a bill to ban the export of unprocessed nickel ore by 2030 on February 3rd, 2025. However, the country’s nickel industry did not welcome the bill, and the removal of the plan was welcomed by the Philippine Nickel Industry Association.
Origin of nickel ore exports from 01/01/2022 to now from the Signal Ocean Platform
Nickel drives vessel demand in the Philippines
Currently, nickel ore makes up over 70% of dry bulk exported from the Philippines, according to TSOP, followed by thermal coal, which is just under 14%. Over 87% of Philippine nickel ore is exported to China, which mostly ends up being used in stainless steel, around 80%, or increasingly to make batteries, around 15%. Booming Chinese stainless production has kept Philippine nickel demand high and with the greater electrification, demand from the battery sector will also increase. China would be hard-pressed to find an alternative to Philippine nickel ore, given that many other large producers such as Australia and Indonesia process the ore domestically before exporting the higher-value product.
There is seasonality in the exports of nickel ore from The Philippines which is also impactful. Given the monsoon season that runs from June to October, mining, port, and transportation operations can be affected heavily. TSOP shows this with exports trending lower in the second half of the year. The first quarter also typically has some downward pressure on exports due to the Chinese New Year slowing buying and importing activity, but Philippine exports do ramp up quickly through the end of the quarter.
Supramax demand outpaces any other vessel class that loads in the Philippines. An outright ban on nickel ore exports as previously proposed would likely reduce vessel demand in the short term as supply chains take some time to readjust, but given the ban has been vetoed, demand for vessels will likely stay healthy, softening with the typical seasonality through Q4 and into 2026 Q1.
Vessel demand for loading in The Philippines from 01/01/2022 to now from the Signal Ocean Platform (TSOP)
Nickel ore exports from The Philippines from the Signal Ocean Platform
Demand Outlook
Given the end-use sectors of nickel are expected to perform well in the largest export region of China, vessel demand, particularly of supramax to load in the Philippines, will remain strong and have good, mid-to-long-term growth potential. The shorter-term outlook is likely to be softer as China already has high stainless steel inventories and may reduce production to support prices; the ripple back would be to lower nickel ore imports, thus reducing vessel requirements. Seasonality will also weigh on demand over the second half of 2026 and into 2026 Q1.
Key takeaways
The proposed nickel ore export ban was introduced to try to increase the value of Philippine exports, in a similar vein to the successful implementation by Indonesia. This would have had a direct impact in supply chains as China would have needed to source new nickel ore, which is difficult as many other larger producers have also moved up the nickel product value chain.
The rescinding of the ban will keep the status quo of nickel ore exports to China. The outlook for nickel ore demand in China is positive given the expectation that stainless steel production, used for infrastructure upgrades, and battery production will continue to be strong. These are mid-to-long-term drivers but should enable growth in vessel demand for loading in the Philippines. Given the typical tonnage of nickel ore exports, supramaxes are likely to be the biggest winner in terms of demand growth.
Stay updated with platform enhancements, insights, and market analysis. For demo inquiries, reach out to us and visit the Signal Ocean Newsroom for the latest updates on market trends and platform developments. This article was authored by Luke Nickels. To check out our previous newsroom article click here.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
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Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
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