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With growing industry attention focused on the latest USTR port fees, we take a closer look at the evolution of the dry bulk fleet (with delivery country and shipyards in China), particularly in light of a noticeable slowdown in new contracting activity.
According to Signal Ocean Orderbook Data Analytics – Dry Bulk Fleet Projection Analysis, between 2020 In 2024, the global dry bulk fleet experienced steady expansion, increasing from 4,545 vessels in 2020 to 5,330 vessels by the end of 2024. This growth was primarily supported by sustained newbuilding deliveries and relatively low levels of scrapping activity.
In 2020, deliveries surged to 230 vessels, likely reflecting the resumption of shipyard activity following early pandemic disruptions. Deliveries then declined year over year, falling to 201 vessels in 2021, 180 in 2022, and 190 in 2023, before climbing again to 238 vessels in 2024—the highest figure during this period. Scrapping volumes remained limited throughout, ranging from -13 vessels in 2020 to between -4 and -8 vessels in the subsequent years.
This supply-side dynamic, characterised by continued inflows and limited vessel removals, drove consistent fleet growth. By 2023, the fleet in service had reached 5,100 vessels, and by 2024, it stood at 5,330, reflecting a compound annual growth of over 3% since 2020.
Looking ahead to 2025 and 2026, projections from SignalOcean’sorderbookdata suggest that the dry bulk fleet will continue to expand. Deliveries are expected to sharply decline to 104 vessels in 2025, with a 75% decrease in scrapping activity from 2024. However, this apparent slowdown in delivery volumes is offset by the inclusion of scheduled deliveries, amounting to 171 vessels in 2025 and 215 vessels in 2026. As a result, the fleet is projected to increase to 5,603 vessels in 2025 and 5,818 vessels by 2026.
This forecasted slowdown in actual newbuilding deliveries is occurring alongside rising cost pressures and policy headwinds—most notably the impact of U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) port fees, which have discouraged U.S.-linked shipowners from contracting vessels at Chinese shipyards. Given China’s dominant role in the global shipbuilding industry, the tariffs have introduced new friction into the orderbook pipeline. There is growing evidence that some shipowners have either postponed newbuilding commitments or redirected interest toward non-Chinese yards, despite their generally higher costs and longer delivery times. The recent decline in scheduled deliveries for 2025 and 2026 may, at least in part, reflect this shift in contracting behaviour.
While the fleet is still projected to grow by nearly 500 vessels by the end of 2026, the composition and timing of that growth are changing. If scrapping activity remains limited and demand growth does not match capacity additions, there is potential for a supply overhang in the dry bulk sector by the end of 2026.
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Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
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Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
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