This week’s Chart Monitor highlights a continued upward trend in tonne-day growth for the Capesize segment during Q2 2025, particularly on voyages from the Atlantic Americas to the Far East. However, the recent surge in demand on the C3 route (Brazil to China) raises concerns about its durability as we move into the third quarter.
This week, C3 rates saw a downward trend as ballast vessel activity in the South Atlantic increased, potentially signaling a build-up of supply pressure in the weeks ahead. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto reported its lowest first-half profit in five years, at $4.81 billion, marking a ~16% year-on-year decline. The drop was driven by softer iron ore prices and persistent oversupply from key exporting regions, Australia, Brazil, and South Africa. The company also cut its interim dividend and reported higher unit costs, citing cyclone disruptions and reduced shipments from its Pilbara operations.
Global iron ore production stays elevated. Major miners, including Fortescue, Rio Tinto, and BHP, have kept overall iron‑ore output steady or at record levels, while Vale has trimmed its high‑grade pellet guidance. That persistent volume amid soft Chinese steel demand is exacerbating oversupply pressures and capping the scope for a sustained iron‑ore price rebound.
Looking ahead, bullish sentiment for Q3 appears increasingly fragile, especially as macroeconomic signals from China continue to weaken. The Chinese manufacturing PMI has remained below the 50-point threshold for several months, registering 49.3 in June, indicating contraction in industrial activity and softening steel demand beyond just construction.
Seasonal factors also weigh on steel consumption in July–August, driven by high temperatures, heavy rainfall, and routine maintenance shutdowns, typically resulting in a 5–10% dip in demand. This year, however, the usual seasonal slowdown is compounded by structural economic weakness, exerting further downward pressure on iron ore prices.
China’s property sector, responsible for roughly 35–40% of domestic steel and iron ore demand, continues to deteriorate. In Q1 2025, new residential construction starts fell ~24% year-on-year, while property investment dropped ~16–17%. Despite government stimulus efforts, including a ¥4 trillion loan facility and tax incentives, buyer interest remains subdued. A backlog of unsold homes and ongoing developer bankruptcies continue to drag on construction activity and raw material consumption.
Finally, China's portside iron ore inventories climbed to 133–136 million tonnes before the end of June, around 12% above the five-year average, underlining subdued offtake and deepening demand-side risks, rather than any sign of market stabilization.
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Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
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Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
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