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COMMODITY RADAR | Spotlight: STEEL
China continues to target export markets
A 5% increase in global steel exports in 2025 was driven by a surge in Chinese exports.
Steel flows in 2025 are 5% higher than in 2024.
China has driven the increase in outward steel flows, as its exports rose by 19%.
Elsewhere, outward steel flows fell 2% y/y.
Outlook to 2026, weak domestic steel demand will see continued emphasis on export markets, but global demand and trade barriers will offer challenges.
Source: Steel-driven tonne-miles from Signal Ocean
Global steel flows reached 234mt in 2025, 5% higher than in 2024. The entirety of this growth has been driven by China, which saw steel exports increase 19% to 92mt. Outside of China, global flows have actually contracted by 2% in 2025, led by a 1.8% drop in Japanese export flows, the largest exporter after China on TSOP.
China accounted for nearly 40% of all seaborne steel tonnage exported, according to TSOP, in 2025, up from 35% in 2024. This increase in share accounts for almost 15mt of extra steel products leaving China. More notable is the proportion of Chinese steel being exported as a share of total crude steel production. From 2022 to 2024, TSOP recorded China's steel export flows as between 6-8% of domestic crude steel production. This figure for 2025 is 10%, as production falls and exports rise.
Source: China steel exports from Signal Ocean
Chinese steel production capacity is around 1bt, vastly outpacing second-place India, which has a capacity of around 200mt moving to a targeted 300mt by 2030. Yet, continued weak performances of the domestic construction industry have heavily impacted steel demand, forcing prices lower and leading to steel mills cutting back production. The most recent figures for Chinese steel production show it 4% lower than over the same period in 2024, with only December data to come.
The start of 2026 will see a seasonal dip in steel production due to the CNY holidays. This follows into exports, with Q1 often seeing weaker export figures. The market expects continued slowdowns of China’s steel industry in 2026, which will weaken both production and demand outlooks domestically.
This would shift focus to export markets, but the new government-imposed export licenses will add a barrier. This reintroduced measure will mean exporters will need to obtain permission to export steel, with some in China expecting this to curb export volumes; however, no comments around the policy having this as a target were mentioned as the policy was unveiled. The rules seem to be aimed at increasing China’s VAT revenue. Weaker exports would put more pressure on domestic prices, placing more pressure on producers to cut production.
Source: China crude steel production from the World Steel Association
China's steel exports will drive supramax demand
Chinese steel exports drive over 57% of all supramax demand from the country. A slow start to 2026 could drag on vessel demand in the region, weighing on supramax rates. This could be compounded further by any complications arising from the new export licensing framework that started on January 1st. A more positive observation is that the wider regions of South and South East Asia are seeing steel demand increase, which will require greater imports as they build their own domestic steel capacity.
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Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
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Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
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