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COMMODITY RADAR | Spotlight: IRON ORE
China stays hungry for iron ore as Simandou ramps-up
China continues to fill its iron ore stocks as Simandou export starts to climb, and the wet season in Brazil limits export growth
Iron ore flows in January and February 2026 were up 8% y/y.
China drives increased demand. January iron ore flows to China rose 10% to 105mt. In February, flows increased by 7%.
Flows destined to ports outside of China rose by 1% in January and by 11% in February.
Despite the broader sentiment of lower demand from the steel production sector, and already very high iron ore port stock levels, March flows of iron ore into China currently look to be up y/y.
Source: Iron ore-driven tonne-miles from Signal Ocean
Global iron ore flows reached 8% higher in both January and February 2026 than in the same month a year ago. Growth was driven by an 11% increase in flows to China, marking a record high for Chinese iron ore imports on TSOP. Outside China, flows grew by only 1% in January due to weaker demand for steel in Japan, Korea, and Europe. In February, however, demand surged in these regions, and Signal Ocean recorded an 11% increase in flows.
Flows from Australia surged in January 13% y/y, while flows from Brazil remained relatively flat with growth of less than 1%. Many in the market were looking to see what flows from Guinea would look like as the Simandou project began exports in late 2025. TSOP recorded January shipments at 344kt, a little over a third of the 1mt expected to be shipped monthly once the mine is fully ramped-up. All of the tonnage from Guinea flowed to China.
Source: Global iron ore flows to China from Signal Ocean
Despite this, China is not expected to consume more iron ore in 2026. Domestic iron ore production fell by over 4% in 2025, so some increases in iron ore imports should be expected. However, given the 2% increase in 2024 and the 4% increase in 2025, lower crude steel production will continue to reduce the incentive to import higher volumes of iron ore.
There are some pockets of growth in iron ore demand forecast, but these remain small in absolute terms. A more notable dynamic is how supply flows may be reshaped by the ramp-up of Simandou in Guinea. Rainfall typically reduces dry bulk loading rates in both Guinea and Brazil. Brazil’s wettest months are generally January to April, while Guinea experiences peak rainfall from July through October. As a result, we could see limited growth, or even y/y declines in exports during each region’s wettest months as the other capitalises on the seasonal advantage. This effect is likely to be most pronounced for Brazil, as Guinea’s exports ramp up from a near-zero base.
Guinea and Brazil will shape the Atlantic iron ore market
The continued ramp-up of Simandou remains the biggest factor in iron ore flows in 2026. Over the upcoming month, we expect Brazilian iron ore exports to remain under pressure due to the rains, while Guinea exports rise. Yet, in volume terms, Brazil will continue to export much larger volumes than Guinea.
Therefore, West Africa will drive demand for capesize vessels for the foreseeable future as iron ore and bauxite exports from Guinea rise. Guinea-to-China is also slightly longer in distance, so it would increase the tonne-miles and tonne-days of iron ore carried by Capesizes if they replaced material originating in Brazil.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
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Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
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