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COMMODITY RADAR | Spotlight: IRON ORE
Simandou ships record quantity of iron ore, swelling Chinese stocks
Guinean iron ore shipments breach 1.2mt for the first time as Simandou ramps up, with Brazil and Australia also seeing exports increase. China, so far, has absorbed the additional tonnage.
Iron ore flows in April 2026 were up 7% y/y.
Flows to China increased by 7% y/y.
Flows destined to ports outside of China rose by 5% y/y.
The strong increase in flows is not driven by consumption. Rather, the increased iron ore flows to China have caused port inventories to reach record highs in 2026 as the country absorbs the new supply coming from Guinea.
Global iron ore flows reached more than 143mt in April 2026, up just under 7% y/y and m/m. China received 74% of the total flows, in line with the same month in 2025, but given the greater volume of flows, this equated to over 7mt more in April 2026 compared to April 2025. The rest of the world saw flows increase by 5% y/y, to 37mt, with nations in East Asia and South East Asia dominating and seeing large y/y increases.
The origins of the iron ore continue to be dominated by Australia and Brazil. In April 2026, Australia was the origin for 55% of iron ore flows and Brazil 23%. Both these percentages are in line with the long-run average going back to 2022. The Simandou ramp-up, therefore, continues to be the most interesting change in iron ore supply, and shipped 1.2mt in April 2026, a record high since the mine came online. The mine will have the capacity to ship around 10mt per month once fully optimised.
The increased flows of iron ore to China have not reflected improved steel mill consumption. Instead, iron ore inventories at ports have been running at historically high levels, with reports that they stood at 172mt during the final week of April, up from around 139mt in the same month in 2025. The scale of this stock build becomes more impactful when measured by days of consumption.
The average monthly crude steel production in 2025 Q1 was 86.4mt, with iron ore port stocks around 139mt, giving a 30-day consumption of iron ore at Chinese ports. This jumps to 39 days when using the 2026 Q1 figures for steel production, 82.3mt per month average, and port stocks of 172mt. Given the structural decline in crude steel production since 2021, it is unlikely that these stocks are building for a sustained production increase. As a result, we expect pressure on iron ore demand from China going forward, which will feed back into flows, with Australia the likely most impacted since Simandou ore is of a higher grade.
Guinea to China will dominate the cape market
Chinese buying appetite will be the biggest factor in shaping the change in iron flows for the rest of this quarter. With stocks rising to record levels during 2026 already and consumption from steel making weak, a push back on flows is the most likely outcome.
Given Chinese involvement in the Simandou operation and its high-grade material, the pressure will be put on flows from lower-grade origins such as Australia. If West African shipments displace Australian volumes, the freight market would benefit from significantly extended voyage durations. With Guinean bauxite exports remaining robust, Capesize demand in the region appears poised for continued support as we approach Q3.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
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Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
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