Global coal demand reached 8.79 billion tons in 2024, marking a new record. According to the IEA’s Coal Mid-Year Update 2025 (July, 2025), consumption is expected to plateau at similar levels in 2025, reflecting a critical shift. .
In China, coal demand fell by around 0.5% in the first half of 2025, as electricity demand growth slowed and renewable generation expanded. This contraction, alongside a 3% decline in coal-fired power generation, suggests that China is entering a phase where renewables and efficiency gains can begin to curb coal growth. Coal, however, still underpins system stability. In India, first-half demand also dipped (–2.1% y/y in the power sector), yet the IEA projects a 1.3% annual increase for 2025.
By contrast, the United States is an outlier among advanced economies. Coal demand rose 12% in H1 2025, and full-year growth is projected at 7% (to ~400 Mt), driven by robust electricity demand and elevated natural gas prices. In the European Union, coal use increased in the power sector during the first half of 2025, reflecting weaker hydro and wind output as well as higher gas prices.
Looking ahead, the IEA expects global demand in 2026 to fall marginally below 2024 levels, signaling the beginning of a potential downward phase. However, supply remains abundant: coal production is projected to exceed 9.2 billion tons in 2025, led by China and India, with incremental U.S. growth offsetting Indonesia’s decline. This supply expansion, in the context of flat demand, could exert downward pressure on prices and trade flows. Global coal trade is forecast to contract in 2025, the first decline since the COVID-19 shock of 2020, with another drop expected in 2026. If confirmed, this would mark the first consecutive two-year decline in seaborne coal trade in the 21st century, a development that could reshape freight markets and alter vessel employment patterns.
Indonesia: Export Giant Under Pressure
Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, has sharply expanded output over the past two decades, from about 557 million tons in 2018 to about 775 million tons in 2023, according to the Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources. In 2024, production rose further to around 836 million tons. China and India remain Indonesia’s two biggest markets. Chinese buyers have openly resisted the government’s HBA benchmark pricing, while India has continued importing large volumes, albeit with periodic shifts in buying patterns.
In March 2025, the government required that all coal transactions use its benchmark price (Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) as a minimum, updated twice a month. The rule faced resistance from exporters and buyers, particularly in China, and in late August 2025, the government rescinded the requirement. Producers are no longer obliged to sell at benchmark levels, but taxes, royalties, and levies continue to be calculated on the HBA, leaving miners exposed to the spread between official valuations and actual market prices.
India's coal market is set for substantial growth. The nation's domestic coal production, which was approximately 1.05 billion tons in FY25, is projected to climb by 42% to nearly 1.53 billion tons by FY30. This expansion is driven by New Delhi's strategy to meet escalating electricity demand and lessen its reliance on thermal coal imports. Concurrently, the steel sector is becoming the primary catalyst for coking coal demand, with consumption anticipated to increase by about 55% by 2030, from roughly 87 million tons to 135 million tons. Despite initiatives to enhance beneficiation and diversify supply, India is expected to remain dependent on imports for the majority of its coking coal requirements throughout the decade.
Beyond India’s expanding domestic output and steel-driven demand, shifting trade flows are reshaping coal supply dynamics, with Russia and Australia regaining ground in the Indian import mix. Coal shipments from Russia to India have increased substantially this year compared to the first eight months of last year. After reaching a high of almost 4 million metric tons in April, shipments levelled off, consistently surpassing an average of 2.5 million metric tons per month between June and August.
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Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
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Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
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