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MARKET INSIGHTS: DRY BULK FLOWS | COPPER
Indonesian Copper Flows to China at Risk in October
A September accident at Grasberg, Indonesia’s key copper mine, has triggered a force majeure.
Exports to Asia, especially China, are set to decline starting in October.
Peaks around 0.3–0.35M tonnes (June, Aug).
Chinese buyers are likely to seek alternatives (Chile, Peru) to cover supply gaps.
The Signal Ocean Cargo Flows Trend Analysis enables users to filter by Origin: Indonesia and Destinations: China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and India. It also supports toggling between aggregated and detailed views, providing greater flexibility and control over the displayed data.
The September 8 accident at Indonesia’s Grasberg copper mine is expected to disrupt exports to Asian markets, particularly China. Although a force majeure has been declared, the impact is unlikely to be reflected in September shipments, as some cargoes had already been loaded or were en route.
The voyage details highlight a series of copper concentrate shipments from Amamapare, Indonesia, during early to mid-September 2025, a period that coincides directly with the Grasberg mining accident on September 8. The data shows a clear dominance of China as the key destination market, with indicative fixtures discharging at major smelter hubs such as Qingdao, Nanjing, Lianyungang, Yantai, and Zhangjiagang. Typical parcel sizes range between 14,000 and 27,000 tonnes, carried primarily on Handysize vessels due to port draft restrictions. Taken together, these voyages represent some of the last uninterrupted flows before Grasberg’s suspension, confirming both China’s reliance on Indonesian supply and the potential scale of disruption in October.
From October onward, export disruptions are set to strain copper markets, leaving Chinese buyers with narrowing options for alternative supplies.
With Indonesia’s recent supply disruption, attention has shifted toward Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo as possible fallback sources. Chile, however, faces its own pressures: national output declined by nearly 10% year-on-year in August, a fatal accident at Codelco’s El Teniente mine reduced production by ~33,000 tons, and the company has trimmed its 2025 forecast. Additional operational challenges, including a fire at Glencore’s Lomas Bayas mine and earlier smelter issues at Altonorte, add to uncertainty.
Taken together, these developments point toward a more constrained copper supply picture. For China, the world’s largest copper consumer, options appear more limited than before, suggesting a period of tighter balances and heightened market sensitivity to future disruptions.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
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Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
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