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From products to crude: how the strikes reshaped Russia's seaborne exports
Ukraine's strikes on Russian ports and refineries stepped up sharply after March 2026, and the effect on Russia's seaborne oil trade was not really a simple fall in volumes. What changed was the mix. Refined product exports out of the Baltic terminals fell apart, while crude exports, above all to India, ran higher. Those two moves are really one story. With refineries damaged, the crude that would normally have been processed at home was pushed onto the water instead. At the same time the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut Middle East supply to India and pulled Russian barrels in from the demand side. Because the crude surge cushioned the product collapse, the headline total barely moved, which is exactly why looking at the total on its own is misleading. The story is in the composition.
The total looks quiet
Add everything up, all loading regions and every commodity, and Russian seaborne exports in 2026 sat inside their normal historical range for most of the year, sliding into the lower half of that range after the strikes (Figure 1) . Anyone glancing at that line would reasonably conclude not much had happened. However the strikes impact are visible once you split the flows by product and by loading region.
Products: the Baltic terminals fold
The clearest damage shows up in clean products loaded at Russia's Baltic terminals, Ust-Luga and Primorsk. After the strikes, clean product loadings from these two ports drop well below their ten-year floor and stay there, the steepest fall of anything on the board, with the 2026 line running at a fraction of a normal year.(Figure 2) .
Crude leaving the same terminals holds up far better (Figure 2a), so this is not the Baltic suffering across the board. It is specifically refined products, the output of refineries, that has been knocked out.
The same picture holds nationally. Total refined product exports fell to around 1.6 million b/d by June and stayed close to that into late July, below the ten-year range for the time of year. Diesel and gasoil took the worst of it, and Moscow imposed a full diesel export ban on 8 July.
Crude: the barrels head east
Crude runs the other way. Total Russian seaborne crude exports pushed to the top of their ten-year range, peaking around 5.5 million b/d in late spring and still above 4.6 million into late July, the strongest run in years.
India took the bulk of it. Russian crude arriving at Indian ports climbed above 2 million b/d, past its historical range, lifting Russia from about a third of India's imports to around half, the first time any single supplier has held a majority of India's crude (Figure 3). Kozmino, on the Pacific, tells the same story, running above its own multi-year ceiling.
Russia overtook Iraq as India's leading supplier and pushed out Persian Gulf barrels, with Saudi volumes into India falling the hardest, from roughly 1.0 million b/d in February to about 330,000 in June (Figure 4). Much of that was about routing rather than price. India replaced most of Gulf barrels, especially the Iraqi ones, from Russia, which captures now almost half of Indian imports.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
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Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
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