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SIGNAL OCEAN AXS DRY INSIGHTS · MARKET INSIGHTS
A Renewed Chapter on the Strikes: The Capesize Pacific in Focus
August opens with a renewed chapter on the Port Hedland strikes. Using AXS Dry Insights, we review the Capesize Pacific the flow of iron-ore shipments and the ballasters map to gauge the impact on today’s spot market.
Australian iron-ore shipments by producer, year-to-date. BHP’s volumes move through Port Hedland, the terminal at the centre of the dispute (Source: AXS Dry Insights).
THE RENEWED CHAPTER
August has opened where July left off. Industrial action has been announced at BHP’s Port Hedland terminal, with a planned 24-hour ban on ship-loading from 05:30 AWST on 8 August, followed by a 24-hour work stoppage from 05:30 AWST on 9 August. About 150 workers are expected to take part, and the action could delay around 16 shipments over the two days. It follows the 16 July stoppage, the first protected industrial action at the terminal in more than 25 years. It comes after Fair Work Commission-facilitated talks failed to break the deadlock, with the unions due to meet BHP again on 4 August. BHP has said it offered a 16% pay rise and has contingency plans to keep operating.
Port Hedland is the world’s largest bulk iron ore export port and the core of BHP’s Western Australia supply chain, so a two-day stoppage presents a risk to loading schedules. Yet the Capesize Pacific is not trading as though a squeeze is coming. To understand why, we look through AXS Dry Insights at two things: how the cargo is flowing and where the ships are.
THE FLOW OF SHIPMENTS
Current export flows do not point to a tightening physical market. Australian seaborne iron ore exports ran at 16.5 Mt in the latest full week and 953.7 Mt year-to-date, 1.3% above the same point last year, while Brazil shipped 9.1 Mt during the week. Among the majors, Rio Tinto has shipped 178.8 Mt year-to-date, BHP 164.9 Mt (close to last year's 168.0 Mt) and Fortescue 113.5 Mt. The volume flow remains intact, with no evidence so far of a material shortfall in iron ore loadings that would, on its own, tighten the Pacific market or lift C5. If anything, last week's data suggested marginally softer Australian export volumes rather than signs of tightening cargo availability.
Seaborne iron-ore exports by country, year-to-date (Source: AXS Dry Insights).
THE BALLASTERS MAP: WHERE THE SHIPS ARE
The ballasters map shows the prompt vessel supply around Western Australia. Around 110 Capesize ballasters, representing approximately 20.6 Mt of deadweight, were positioned off the Western Australian coast, with 54 already bound for Port Hedland, a further 16 heading for Port Walcott and 9 for Dampier. These vessels are sailing in ballast towards the loading ports in search of their next cargo, with supply concentrated across the region most exposed to any disruption in loading schedules.
Ballasters map, ballast Capesizes positioned off Western Australia: 110 ships, 20.6 Mt dwt (Source: AXS Dry Insights).
The fleet balance suggests that prompt vessel supply remains elevated. As of 31 July, the Pacific Capesize fleet comprised 547 laden vessels and 534 in ballast, leaving 49% of the fleet available for its next voyage—above the level seen at the start of the year. The Atlantic-to-Pacific ballast ratio stood at around 0.38, remaining well below 1.0 and indicating a continued concentration of ballast tonnage in the Pacific. In that context, any temporary interruption to loading schedules would leave more vessels competing for available cargoes rather than reduce vessel availability.
Capesize fleet in the Pacific, laden versus ballast, 2026 (Source: AXS Dry Insights).
Fleet distribution, Atlantic: Pacific ratio of ballast Capesizes, by year; below 1.0 = more tonnage in the Pacific (Source: AXS Dry Insights).
THE SPOT READ: C5 THE WEAKER LEG
C5 (West Australia–Qingdao) is trading well below C3 (Brazil–Qingdao): the spread sat near –$21/mt at the end of July, wider than about –$14/mt a year earlier, with C5 running at roughly 0.37 times C3. With export volumes remaining stable and ballast supply elevated, there is little evidence to support a narrowing of the C5–C3 differential in the near term.
Capesize C5 minus C3 spread ($/mt) over the past year (Source: Signal Ocean).
WHAT TO WATCH
Two factors will determine the near-term direction of the market. If ballast arrivals continue to outpace cargo availability, competition for prompt cargoes is likely to remain elevated, limiting support for C5 relative to C3. The planned industrial action at Port Hedland represents the principal upside risk. Should loading disruptions prove more prolonged than currently anticipated, reduced loading activity could tighten the prompt cargo market and provide support for C5 relative to current levels.
For now, however, the market appears to place greater weight on current fleet positioning than on the risk of operational disruption. The Pacific Capesize market continues to have a sizeable pool of ballast vessels, while the extent and duration of any disruption at Port Hedland remain uncertain.
METHODOLOGY
Freight, fleet, export and vessel-position data are from AXS Dry Insights (AXSMarine), as of 31 July / 1 August 2026, covering iron-ore export volumes, Capesize C3 and C5 assessments, laden and ballast fleet status in the Pacific, global ballast share, and daily ballast-vessel positions off Western Australia. Details of the industrial action reflect contemporaneous public news reporting. Figures are reported as sourced; no independent forecast is implied.
Maria holds a M.Sc. in Shipping, Trade and Finance from the Bayes Business School at the City University in London and a B.Sc. in Shipping Economics from the University of Piraeus.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
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Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
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