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COMMODITY RADAR | Steel Chain Look Back 2026 Q2
The second quarter of 2026 saw sharp divergence across the steel chain. Alloying commodities saw noticeably strong increases in bulk seaborne flows, while bulk steel flows declined by close to 8%.
Global seaborne steel flows fell 8% to reach 64.1mt in 2026 Q2
Global seaborne manganese ore flows grew by over 11% to 12mt in 2026 Q2
Global seaborne chrome ore flows grew by over 16% to 7.1mt in 2026 Q2
Global seaborne nickel ore flows grew by over 22% to 26.1mt in 2026 Q2
Global seaborne bulk steel
Global seaborne bulk steel flows fell sharply in Q2 2026, declining 7.5% year-on-year to 64.1 Mt. Among the four largest steel exporting countries, only China recorded an increase in shipments, as weakening domestic demand encouraged mills to place more material into overseas markets. Indonesia was the only one of the four largest steel importers to register a year-on-year increase, emerging as a key destination for additional Chinese export volumes.
The Arabian Gulf typically accounts for a significant share of China’s steel exports, representing around 11% of shipments. However, disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran conflict materially reduced the attractiveness of the region as an export destination. As a result, Chinese exports were likely constrained relative to what could have been achieved in a more stable trading environment.
Global seaborne bulk manganese ore flows increased by 11% to reach 12mt in 2026 Q2. Both Gabon and Australia saw export rises outpace the small contraction from South Africa and Ghana. The large jump in Australian output comes as a result of mine production ramp-ups following cyclones in 2024. The recent announcement of the closure of Australia’s only manganese smelter, due to the financial impact of supply disruptions from the cyclone that hit in 2024, will allow for more manganese ore to find its way to the export market.
Major steel producers, China and India, saw manganese ore imports rise. India saw the biggest rise as domestic steel production rose and domestic manganese grades are insufficient to meet the demand. This trend is likely to continue, and should see 2026 Q3 imports above those of 2025 Q3.
Global seaborne chrome ore flows increased by more than 16% y/y to reach 7.1 Mt in Q2 2026. Exports from South Africa and Mozambique rose sharply, adding nearly 1 Mt of additional seaborne supply compared with the same period last year. This growth has been supported by the continued idling of ferrochrome smelting capacity in South Africa, where elevated electricity costs, power supply challenges, and weak alloy margins have encouraged producers to export raw ore rather than process it domestically.
The shift in beneficiation has been reflected in Asia, where Chinese ferrochrome production has increased to offset lower South African alloy output. Meanwhile, Indonesia's ferrochrome industry continued to expand, supported by growing stainless steel production and integrated processing capacity. As a result, both China and Indonesia imported more chrome ore than in Q2 2025, underpinning the strong growth in global seaborne trade.
Global seaborne nickel ore flows increased in Q2 2026, driven by higher exports from the Philippines as mining activity recovered during the dry season and operational conditions improved.
Stronger output enabled miners to capitalise on firm demand from Indonesia's rapidly expanding nickel processing industry, where additional RKEF and HPAL capacity continued to require imported ore to supplement domestic supply. China also remained a significant importer, supporting nickel pig iron production despite softer stainless steel demand. Favourable mining conditions, combined with sustained downstream demand across Asia, resulted in a notable increase in Philippine exports compared with the same period in 2025.
Luke has over 8-years of experience analysing and forecasting commodity markets, with particular expertise in stainless steel raw materials and the wider metals markets.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
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Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
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