Subscribe for our latest news, straight to your inbox:
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Share this post
COMMODITY RADAR | Spotlight: IRON ORE
Chinese port stocks rise further as steel demand softens
Iron ore market fundamentals softened further in July as Chinese steel demand remained subdued and port inventories continued to build. While Australia's and Brazil's exports face growing headwinds, Simandou is steadily establishing itself as a new source of high-grade supply, with implications that extend beyond the iron ore market.
Global iron ore flows in July 2026 were down 1% y/y.
Flows to China increased by 2% y/y.
Flows destined to ports outside of China fell by 6% y/y.
Iron ore flows from Guinea were 1.8 mt, down from 2mt in June
Global seaborne bulk iron ore flows reached 145 mt in July 2026, down 1% on the same period last year, but over 5% lower than the previous month. Flows to the largest seaborne bulk importer, China, increased by 2% to reach 108.2 mt. June remains the only month so far in 2026 when China imported less iron ore than the year earlier. Iron ore flows destined for ports outside of China fell by over 6% year-on-year, indicating weak demand from the steel industry.
Exports from the Simandou project have slowed over the past two months after peaking at 2.8 mt in May. The July figure was recorded at 1.8 mt. Australia and Brazil remain the dominant iron ore exporters, with exports in July 2026 of 77.4 mt and 34.3 mt, respectively.
The latest Chinese crude steel production figures from NBS show the country is running 3% behind the volume produced at the same point last year. However, June’s monthly figure, the latest available, did show a jump of 20% from that of May, rising to 24.3% if comparing it on a daily production basis. Chinese iron ore port stocks remain elevated, having risen over the last two weeks of July to 174 mt, more than 22% higher than the same period a year earlier.
The combination of rising port stocks and weaker demand from the steel industry is expected to ripple back and put pressure on iron exports from both Brazil and Australia, with Australia being the most likely to face the more immediate challenges due to its lower iron ore quality. The Simandou project will continue its slow and controlled ramp-up and, given the higher iron ore quality, likely cement itself as the preferred source of high-quality feed for the Chinese steel industry.
Despite the expected slowdown in iron ore demand going forward, the capesize market is well positioned to benefit. Any tonnage replaced by iron ore from Simandou represents a significant increase in tonnes-miles, which will help to support capesize market rates.
Source: China crude steel production from NBS https://data.stats.gov.cn/dg/website/page.html#/pc/national/en/monthData
Market continues to be shaped by slower ore demand but stronger tonne-miles
Iron ore demand is losing momentum, but the implications for shipping are more nuanced than the headline volumes suggest. Elevated Chinese port inventories and softer steel production point to weaker import requirements in the months ahead, creating downside risks for Australian and Brazilian exports. At the same time, Simandou's gradual ramp-up is beginning to reshape trade flows rather than simply add supply.
As higher-grade Guinean ore captures a larger share of Chinese imports, average voyage distances increase, supporting tonne-mile demand even if seaborne volumes soften. For the capesize market, the evolving geography of iron ore trade could partially offset weaker cargo demand, reinforcing the growing divergence between cargo volumes and vessel demand.
Luke has over 8-years of experience analysing and forecasting commodity markets, with particular expertise in stainless steel raw materials and the wider metals markets.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
No items found.
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
.webp){kind=small}
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)