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SPOTLIGHT OF THE WEEK
Strait of Hormuz - a Renewed Blockade Impairs Dry-Bulk Crossings
Figure 1: Strait of Hormuz dry-bulk transits by direction (eastbound and westbound), 2026 - daily counts with 3-day and 7-day moving averages against the monthly average; the dashed line marks the 13 July blockade (Source: The Signal Group).
On 13July2026, US Central Command announced a renewed naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective 14 July), ending a 60-day ceasefire following Iran’s 7 July attacks on commercial vessels in the strait. The chart tracks dry-bulk transits of the Strait of Hormuz by direction — eastbound (east-to-west) and westbound (west-to-east) — as daily counts, with 3-day and 7-day moving averages plotted against the monthly average.
Crossings had recovered only partially in June, after the 18 June ceasefire and the lifting of the previous blockade. The 13 July action reversed that recovery. Comparing equal windows on either side of the announcement — the 24 days before (19 June–12 July) against the 24 days after (13 July–5 August) — average daily dry-bulk transits fell by roughly half: eastboundfrom1.04to0.54crossings/day(−48%) and westboundfrom1.42to0.71(−50%).
FREIGHT MARKET OVERVIEW | BDI & SEGMENT METRICS
Figure 2: Baltic Dry Index - spot rate summary across segments and BDI performance as of 31 Jul 2026 (Source: The Signal Group).
Driven by a robust performance in the Capesize sector that offset softer results in the Supramax and Handysize segments, the BDI dipped slightly by 11 points to 2,732 (+59 day-on-day, −11 WoW). Specifically, Capesize continued its upward trend, pushing the BCI up to 4,564 (+268 day-on-day, +364 WoW) and boosting average C5TC earnings to around $37,892/day (+$3,305 WoW). The Panamax market also showed strength, with the BPI firming to 2,087 (+47 day-on-day, +63 WoW). In contrast, Supramax proved to be the week's main underperformer, sliding to 1,609 (−1 day-on-day, −85 WoW), while Handysize also lost ground, easing to 887 (−3 day-on-day, −18 WoW).
All data reflect market conditions as of 31 Jul 2026 unless otherwise stated.
CAPESIZE | ANALYSIS
The BCI extended its rally to 4,564 (+268 day-on-day; +364 week-on-week), a second consecutive strong week, and average C5TC earnings rose to $37,892/day (+$2,435 day-on-day; +$3,305 week-on-week). The gains were Pacific-led: C5 (West Australia–Qingdao) jumped to $14.45/mt (+$1.82 WoW, about +14%), while C3 (Tubarao–Qingdao) firmed more modestly to $34.81/mt (+$0.45 WoW).
Figure 3: Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) - spot rate summary and BCI performance as of 31 Jul 2026 (Source: The Signal Group).
Supply / Demand - the forward read: As of 31 July 2026, expected demand on C3 (Tubarão–Qingdao) remains above projected vessel supply through most of August. The two curves converge around 27–29 August, after which projected supply moves above expected demand and the surplus widens into the first week of September. On C5 (West Australia–Qingdao), projected supply excluding laden vessels remains above expected demand through most of the 15-day window. The curves converge around 12–13 August, but total projected supply rises sharply thereafter and finishes well above expected demand by 15 August.
Figure 4: Capesize - C3 & C5 forward balance: cumulative Supply vs Expected Demand over days forward (Source: The Signal Group).
The global Capesize ballaster fleet increased to 605 vessels (+2% WoW). Australasia remained the largest ballast region with 224 vessels (+3% WoW), while the Indian Ocean/South Africa increased to 184 (+12% WoW). In contrast, ballast numbers fell in the North Atlantic (-13% WoW), South Atlantic (-8% WoW) and East Asia/NOPAC (-5% WoW). The regional distribution indicates that vessel availability remains weighted towards Australasia and the Indian Ocean, while ballast availability in the Atlantic continued to tighten.
Figure 5: Capesize - Global ballaster fleet and regional positioning (Source: The Signal Group).
Capesize tonne-mile demand held firm around 102–103%, but the VLOC index fell sharply to about 83% - the widest gap between the two classes in months.
Figure 6: VLOC vs Capesize - Tonne-Miles Index view by vessel class (Source: The Signal Group).
PANAMAX | ANALYSIS
The BPI firmed to 2,087 (+47 day-on-day; +63 week-on-week). Earnings rose on the fronthaul and Atlantic routes — P1A_82 +5% WoW to $21,205/day, P2A_82 +5% to $30,840/day and P3A_82 +7% to $15,618/day — while P5_82 (−2%) and P6_82 (−2%) eased; the P5TC average rose 3% WoW to $18,780/day. Most routes trade well above year-ago levels (P6_82 +33% YoY).
Figure 7: Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) - spot rate summary and BPI performance as of 31 Jul 2026 (Source: The Signal Group).
The metrics carry a forward caution. ECSA ballasters climbed again to 323 (+8% WoW), and USG/USEC/ECCAN open tonnage jumped 45% WoW to 42.
Figure 8: Panamax - Key metrics & route prices as of 31 Jul 2026 (Source: The Signal Group).
Supply / Demand - the forward read: The balances look much like last week, but the implication is directional. P5 remains the segment’s anchor, with cumulative supply well below expected demand across the window - the main reason the Pacific round can hold even as ballasters build. P3 keeps a clear supply surplus that should cap the transatlantic; P1/P2/P7 tighten only later in the window; and P6 sits close to balance. Net, the curve supports the Pacific but leaves the Atlantic exposed if the ECSA tonnage build persists.
Figure 9: Panamax - P1/P2/P7, P3, P5 & P6: cumulative Supply vs Expected Demand over days forward (Source: The Signal Group).
Figure 10: Panamax - Global ballaster fleet and regional positioning (Source: The Signal Group).
Panamax and Post-Panamax tonne-mile indices declined to around 96–100% by the end of July, from above 113–120% in mid-month. Despite the softer tonne-mile reading, Panamax spot rates continued to strengthen. Whether those freight gains can be sustained will depend on a recovery in tonne-mile demand over the coming weeks.
Figure 11: Panamax vs Post-Panamax - Tonne-Miles Index view by vessel class (Source: The Signal Group).
SUPRAMAX | ANALYSIS
The BSI fell to 1,609 (−1 day-on-day; −85 week-on-week), reversing recent gains. Average S10TC earnings dropped 6% WoW to $18,302/day, with declines across most routes — S2 −9%, S3TC_63 −7%, S4A −7% and S5 −6%. The US Gulf routes S1C ($28,418/day) and S4A ($27,311/day) led lower, though year-on-year comparisons remain strongly positive (S1B +59% YoY).
Figure 12: Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) - spot rate summary and BSI performance as of 31 Jul 2026 (Source: The Signal Group).Type image caption here (optional)
Net vessel supply remained concentrated in the US Gulf/US East Coast (S4A/S1C), with 121 available vessels, while the Continent (S4B) increased to 76 (+17% WoW). East Coast South America (ECSA) continued to tighten, with net vessel supply falling to 26 vessels (-28% WoW). Meanwhile, congestion in North and Central China remained elevated at 167 vessels (+4% WoW), limiting the amount of vessel capacity immediately available to the Pacific market.
Figure 13: Supramax - Key metrics & route prices as of 31 Jul 2026 (Source: The Signal Group).
Supply / Demand - the forward read: Little changed week-on-week, and that is the point: supply surpluses still dominate the curve. As of 31 July 2026, cumulative projected vessel supply remains above expected demand throughout the forecast period on S4A/S1C (US Gulf/US East Coast), S4B (Continent) and S8/S10 (Pacific), with the supply-demand gap persisting across the forecast window. S5 (East Coast South America) follows a different pattern, with cumulative expected demand exceeding projected vessel supply through most of the forecast period. The two curves converge during the final days of the forecast, when cumulative projected supply moves marginally above expected demand.
Figure 14: Supramax - S4A/S1C, S4B, S5 & S8/S10: cumulative Supply vs Expected Demand over days forward (Source: The Signal Group).
Figure 15: Supramax - Global ballaster fleet and regional positioning (Source: The Signal Group).
A softer forward outlook is reinforced by fading tonne-mile momentum across the geared classes. This trend is highlighted by Handymax pulling back from its recent peak toward 123–130% and Supramax easing to around 104%, while Handysize continues to languish near 90%.
Figure 16: Supramax · Handymax · Handysize - Tonne-Miles Index view by vessel class (Source: The Signal Group).
HANDYSIZE | ANALYSIS
The BHSI eased to 887 (−3 day-on-day; −18 week-on-week). Average HS7TC earnings slipped 2% WoW to $15,969/day. The softness was led by the South Atlantic (HS3_38 −4%, HS4_38 −7% WoW), while the Continent/Baltic and Pacific routes (HS1, HS2, HS5, HS6, HS7) were nearly flat. Year-on-year gains remain strong (HS6_38 +38%, HS7_38 +36% YoY).
Figure 17: Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI) - spot rate summary and BHSI performance as of 31 Jul 2026 (Source: The Signal Group).
Net vessel supply was highest in the UK Continent/Baltic (HS1/HS2, 119, +7% WoW) and the Far East (HS7, 104, +8% WoW); congestion firmed on the Continent (31, +35% WoW) and in North China (38, +9% WoW).
Figure 18: Handysize - Key metrics & route prices as of 31 Jul 2026 (Source: The Signal Group).
Supply / Demand - the forward read: As last week, forward supply-demand projections indicate a cumulative vessel supply surplus on HS1/HS2, HS5 and HS6 throughout most of the forecast period. HS7 (Far East) remains the exception, with expected demand exceeding projected supply during the early part of the forecast before the two curves converge towards the end of the period. Net vessel supply also increased in the UK Continent/Baltic (+7% WoW) and the Far East (+8% WoW), reflecting higher vessel availability than a week earlier.
Figure 19: Handysize - HS1/HS2, HS5, HS6 & HS7: cumulative Supply vs Expected Demand over days forward (Source: The Signal Group).
Figure 20: Handysize - Global ballaster fleet and regional positioning (Source: The Signal Group).
OVERALL MARKET TREND | CONCLUSIONS
Key takeaway: Capesize maintained positive momentum on Pacific iron ore activity, while Panamax freight strengthened despite softer tonne-mile demand. In contrast, forward supply continued to exceed expected demand across most Supramax and Handysize benchmark routes, consistent with weaker market conditions in both segments.
Key risk: Forward supply surpluses remain most evident on Panamax P3, Supramax S4A/S1C, S4B and S8/S10, and Handysize HS1/HS2 and HS5, while Capesize C5 still shows cumulative supply above expected demand in the far window. The renewed US naval blockade of Iran (see Spotlight) is the principal geopolitical watch-item: it has roughly halved dry-bulk transits of the Strait of Hormuz since 13 July, and any broadening of Gulf disruption or sustained re-routing would intensify the risk to regional flows and rates.
Methodology: Analysis is based on data from The Signal Ocean Platform and AXSMarine, covering market prices, Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize insights, tonne-mile charts, forward supply-demand balances and waypoint transit counts for the Strait of Hormuz.
Maria holds a M.Sc. in Shipping, Trade and Finance from the Bayes Business School at the City University in London and a B.Sc. in Shipping Economics from the University of Piraeus.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
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Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
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