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SPOTLIGHT OF THE WEEK | AUSTRALIA BAUXITE
Australia Bauxite: Fewer Cargoes Overall, but More of Them Bound for China
Lower exports overall. Signal Ocean's tracked flows show Australian bauxite exports reached 51.44 Mt during January–October 2026, down 4.8% from 54.05 Mt a year earlier and slightly below the 51.73 Mt recorded in the same period of 2024. The decline was not uniform throughout the year. Q3 shipments increased 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to 17.08 Mt, although they remained 5.1% below the corresponding period of 2025. October exports reached 5.79 Mt, down 3.2% month-on-month but 1.3% higher year-on-year.
China's share of Australian bauxite exports has grown. Australian bauxite shipments to China increased 2.7% year-over-year to 36.41 Mt during January–October 2026, while exports to other destinations declined 19.1% to 15.03 Mt. China's share of Australia's total bauxite exports rose to 70.8%, up from 65.6% a year earlier. The divergence was more pronounced in October, when China-bound shipments increased 13.6% year-over-year to 4.37 Mt, while volumes to other destinations fell 23.9%.
A softer start to November. Signal Ocean's tracked Australian bauxite exports declined to 0.88 Mt in the week ending 8 November, down 28.7% week-on-week and 31.8% year-on-year. China-bound shipments eased 10.6% on the week to 0.75 Mt, while exports to other destinations fell more sharply, by 67.3%, to 0.13 Mt. The latest weekly decline was therefore more pronounced outside China, consistent with the growing concentration of Australian bauxite shipments towards the Chinese market. However, the weekly figures should be viewed alongside October's 1.3% year-on-year increase in total exports.
Australian supply and Chinese demand. Metro Mining reported improved shipments from its Bauxite Hills operation, with October exports reaching 752,000 wet tonnes, approximately 14% above September, following earlier mining and barging disruptions. Loading performance also improved, with a Capesize vessel loaded in 5.8 days, the company's fastest turnaround of 2026. In China, aluminium ingot inventories across three major regions declined by 6,000 t to 370,000 t on 11 November. However, conditions further upstream remain less supportive of additional bauxite purchases. Weekly Chinese alumina production fell to 1.733 Mt as of 5 November, with the operating rate declining to 75.55%. Improved Australian loading capacity may therefore not immediately translate into stronger spot cargo demand. China's increasing share of Australian bauxite exports favours shorter Pacific voyages over the longer Guinea–China route, with different implications for Capesize tonne-mile demand.
Chinese aluminium ingot inventory observations are dated 11 November and are presented as a subsequent market update; the freight reference week ends 6 November. Downstream aluminium inventories are distinct from refinery bauxite feedstock stocks.
FORWARD VESSEL AVAILABILITY | WHAT CHANGED
The C3 Brazil–China 40-day forward balance tightened, with the vessel shortfall widening from 9 to 48 ships, while C5 West Australia–China remained in surplus at 37 vessels. Panamax balances eased in both basins, with P1/P2/P7 Atlantic moving from a 34-ship shortfall to balance and P6 Singapore–Atlantic shifting into a 10-ship surplus. The P3 Pacific shortfall narrowed from 29 to 10 vessels, while P5 Indonesia–China remained 45 ships short. Among geared vessels, surpluses widened on S4B Continent–US Gulf and S5 West Africa, while S4A/S1C US Gulf and HS1/HS2 Continent recorded smaller surpluses. HS7 North China showed the largest Handysize shortfall, widening from 21 to 36 vessels.
FREIGHT MARKET OVERVIEW
From Week 44 to Week 45. The BDI increased by 91 points to 2,805 on 6 November, marking its third consecutive weekly gain and remaining above its 52-week average of 2,568. Capesize strengthened, with the BCI rising 218 points to 4,344, while Panamax recovered, with the BPI gaining 114 points to 2,003.
Geared sizes diverged. The BSI declined by 50 points to 1,815, while S11TC earnings fell by $623/day to $22,946/day. In contrast, the BHSI increased by 9 points to 1,023, reaching a new 52-week high, with HS7TC earnings edging up by $163/day to $18,418/day.
KEY TAKEAWAY
• Capesize: Firmer at the 6 November weekly close, with the BCI rising 218 points to 4,344. The C3 Brazil–China 40-day forward shortfall widened from about 9 to 48 vessels, while C5 West Australia–China remained in surplus at about 37 vessels. Atlantic conditions strengthened, although Pacific freight remained more subdued.
• Panamax: Recovered after three consecutive weekly declines, with the BPI gaining 114 points to 2,003. Forward vessel balances loosened across P1/P2/P7 Atlantic, P3 Pacific and P6 Singapore–Atlantic, while P5 Indonesia–China retained a shortfall of about 45 vessels.
• Supramax and Handysize: Supramax weakened, with wider vessel surpluses on S4B Continent–US Gulf and S5 West Africa. Handysize reached a 52-week high, supported by firmer conditions in parts of the Atlantic. The HS1/HS2 Continent surplus narrowed from about 69 to 40 vessels, while the HS7 North China shortfall widened from about 21 to 36 vessels.
CAPESIZE
Freight. At the 6 November weekly close, the BCI reached 4,344, up 218 points from 4,126 on 30 October. The Capesize 5TC (182) average closed the week at $39,395/day, up $1,975/day from $37,420/day on 30 October, having opened the week at $35,944/day. The North Atlantic outperformed, with the C8 transatlantic index lifted to about $41,000/day by Friday. In the Pacific, C5 West Australia–China miner business was concluded at $13.25/t on Friday, below Monday’s opening levels, while active C3 fixing midweek pushed Brazil–China rates towards $37.00/t. Official 6 November C3 and C5 index assessments are pending verification, so the C3–C5 spread is not quoted for the weekly close.
9 November: subsequent observation. By 9 November, the BCI stood at 4,459, C5TC at $36,936/day, C3 at $36.52/t and C5 at $13.80/t (spread $22.72/t). These are subsequent observations and are not used for the weekly closing comparison.
Ships vs cargoes (approximate chart readings). C3: ships below cargoes across the whole 40-day window (310 vs 358 by day 40, from 326 vs 335). C5: total available supply, including laden vessels, reaches or exceeds expected cargoes from approximately day 10; by day 15 the chart shows 209 ships against 172 cargoes. Excluding laden vessels, available supply levels off near 131 ships. Ballasters vs Week 44: global 623→607 (−3%); South Atlantic 69→79 (+14%); IO/SA 160→143 (−11%); Australasia 230→223 (−3%).
PANAMAX
Freight. The BPI rose 114 points to 2,003, while P5TC earnings increased by $1,031/day to $18,030/day, ending three consecutive weekly declines. The Atlantic led the rebound: P1A_82 +$1,745/day to $15,977/day and P2A_82 +$1,392/day to $24,234/day, still the top route. P3A_82 rose $894/day to $20,506/day, and P6_82 rose $709/day to $17,087/day. P5_82 slipped $150/day to $18,672/day and P7 $0.63/mt to $67.73/mt.
Ships vs cargoes (approximate chart readings). Forward counts loosened. P1/P2/P7 69 vs 69 by day 18 (from 34 short); P3 60 vs 70 by day 19 (from 29 short); P6 272 vs 262 by day 30 (from 5 short); P5 unchanged at 79 vs 124 by day 10. Ballasters vs Week 44: global 811→796 (−2%); Australasia 219→227 (+4%); South Atlantic 65→57 (−12%).
SUPRAMAX
Freight. The BSI fell 50 points to 1,815, its second consecutive weekly decline, while S11TC earnings decreased by $623/day to $22,946/day. Losses were broad: S15 Indian Ocean −$1,778/day to $17,811/day, S1B −$878/day, S5 West Africa −$812/day to $25,391/day, and S3 −$592/day to $23,875/day. The US Gulf held: S4A −$132/day to $29,756/day, the top route, and S1C +$22/day to $29,472/day.
Next fixing window (approximate chart readings). S4B Continent–US Gulf is the main drag (124 ships vs 76 cargoes by day 20) and S5 West Africa swung into surplus (176 vs 153, from near balance). S4A/S1C narrowed to 138 vs 116. Asia remains the support: S8/S10 118 vs 137 by day 10. Ballasters vs Week 44: global 716→723 (+1%); Australasia 160→202 (+26%); FEAST/NOPAC 202→180 (−11%).
HANDYSIZE
Freight. The BHSI rose 9 points to 1,023, reaching a new 52-week high, while HS7TC earnings increased by $163/day to $18,418/day. The Atlantic firmed: HS4_38 US Gulf +$836/day to $19,393/day, HS2_38 +$535/day and HS1_38 +$521/day. HS3_38 South Atlantic fell $1,139/day to $28,794/day but remains the top route. Asia edged up: HS7_38 +$275/day to $18,950/day and HS6_38 +$119/day.
Next fixing window (approximate chart readings). HS7 North China is the nearest-dated support: 142 ships vs 178 cargoes by day 10, from 21 short. The HS1/HS2 Continent surplus narrowed to 155 vs 115 by day 15 (from 156 vs 87). HS5 is unchanged (58 vs 35 by day 14), and HS6 is now even (55 vs 52 by day 20). Ballasters vs Week 44: global 668→677 (+1%); North Atlantic 186→203 (+9%); Australasia 145→135 (−7%).
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